Italian magazine “Il Sussidiario” interviewed “Bitter Winter” editor-in-chief on how U.S.-China relations may change with Trump. Here is an English translation.
by Massimo Introvigne
[interview by Paolo Rossetti]
How will U.S.-China relations change under Trump? Xi Jinping has extended his hand, hoping for cooperation, but what is the reality?
No one knows the reality. During the campaign there were contradictory statements, on the one hand very aggressive about the need to contain China and on the other hand similar to those about Europe, arguing that US spending on Taiwan is excessive and that the Taiwanese should pay for their own military defense. The only bar Trump has kept straight so far is that of tariffs toward China, which should increase protection for American industry. From the perspective of economic relations, if Trump stays true to his promises, China will be hit where it hurts the most, that is, on the economic aspect, making its domestic problems worse.
The American president is an unpredictable character. What could change the approach to relations with the Chinese manifested in the election campaign?
We know from the experience of the first presidential term that the Trump of electoral campaigns and the Trump of government are characters that do not coincide. Also intervening on relations with Beijing are advisers from corporate America, including Elon Musk himself, who do not have bad relations with the Chinese. If the U.S. president sticks to what he announced, China would be hit on the level of exports to the U.S., so on a very sensitive nerve. On Taiwan, on the one hand there are statements of disengagement from Europe to focus on containing China, on the other hand there is talk of disengagement from everywhere because the money should be spent for domestic American projects—it is not clear what the line will be.
Trump thinks mostly as a businessman, and Taiwan is a world leader in semiconductors, which American companies also need. Will this induce him to oppose the People’s Republic of China’s sights on Taipei?
Statements about Taiwan having to defend itself have been episodic, while statements telling the same to Europe and Ukraine are daily. I don’t think the U.S. attitude on Taiwan will be much different from Trump’s, not least because of Trump’s geopolitical attitude, which looks more to the Pacific than to the Atlantic. In this sense, Taiwan’s defense is strategic for him, while that of Eastern Europe is not. But something could also change in Xi Jinping’s head. A disengagement in Ukraine could convince him that action can be taken without America reacting, just as a disengagement in Afghanistan convinced Putin that he could attack Ukraine.
But what are the main open files between China and the US?
The one that has been most talked about is trade. The Trump voter is disturbed by the competition and “invasion” of Chinese products, including those sold via the Internet, which hurt not only the small shop owners but also the small companies. In addition, sometimes, think of electric cars, the Chinese harm American big business too. The dossier that is being talked about and will be talked about the most is about dumping, overproduction, balance of payments with China. The solution waved so far is tariffs.
But what reaction might tariffs trigger?
Certainly, a maneuver by the Chinese against American products. Those who advise Trump do anticipate this reaction, but since the balance of trade hangs on Beijing’s side, from a tariff war the Chinese have to lose more. This could both worsen political relations and cause a further economic slowdown with unpredictable consequences for China.
Unpredictable in what way?
In China there is a pact that the majority of Chinese accept, one that goes back to Deng Xiaoping: “You, the citizens, agree not to have democracy and we, the Communist Party, guarantee you prosperity in return.” However, if prosperity is not guaranteed, or is less guaranteed, the pact no longer works. Most people still accept this tacit agreement: the West focuses on those who fight for human rights, but there are a few thousand dissidents in China, in a country that is so huge. The average Chinese, on the other hand, is one who goes along with the deal: democracy is empty but the belly is full. But, precisely, if the belly is not full, things may change. Mind it, the Chinese are not in danger of starvation, but they have become accustomed to growth; if growth slows down significantly, there may be problems.
Could Trump and Xi come to an agreement? With Biden, the U.S. concern seemed to be mainly about not allowing China’s full technological development to get to the level of the U.S. Is it an obstacle that still exists?
Recently, the Biden administration was focused on different priorities, mainly on Chinese aid to Russia. For Trump they matter less; Ukraine is not where his heart beats. For him, the priority is to protect the merchant who has a small textile and clothing trade and has to cope with the “invasion” of Chinese products that cost less and may force him to close. Then Trump also wants to protect those like the electric car manufacturers, who have problems with China because Chinese products cost less. Rising prices are also partly attributed to the crisis created by Chinese competition. Of course, with Trump, you never know what’s going on; but he promised to curb the “invasion” of cheaper Chinese products, and that was not a minor electoral issue.
In terms of human rights, should we expect anything from the new president?
Many activists were favorably impressed that, in his first speech, Trump announced that he would seriously address religious freedom. It may look like an election promissory note he had to pay to evangelicals. However, even in his first administration, the promotion of religious freedom was something his team seriously pursued.
What reflections might interest in this issue have?
Some believe it could lead to a clash with the Vatican. Team Trump has always been critical of the agreement between the Holy See and China. I have just read in the most authoritative Italian daily, “Corriere della Sera,” that the Pope, because of his deal with China, could even speak out against American tariffs hitting Beijing. I don’t expect it. However, it is true that some in the first Trump administration harshly attacked the agreement between the Vatican and Beijing. It was something quite unusual on the part of a third country when two foreign states enter into an agreement. A stance that probably reflected the mood of Trump evangelical (and some Catholic) voters.
Could that of human rights, in short, become yet another bone of contention with China?
Trump, especially if Republicans will control both the Senate and the House, has promised to strengthen human rights commissions of inquiry into China. The hawk, in this respect, is Marco Rubio. Perhaps the vindictive Trump has not forgiven him for having been his competitor in the 2016 primaries, but the Republican senator has been an important link to the Latino community on the campaign trail and there are rumors that he may have a key role in the second Trump administration. He has been one of the most active Republicans in exposing human rights violations in China. It has to be seen whether a certain mindset of Trump, which leads him to take care of business first, will prevail, or whether to annoy China he will attack it on human rights as well.
